The good and bad of the Spanish General Election
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By h.b. - Mar 10, 2008 - 2:05 AM
A turnout of 75 percent is very healthy, but a country polarised between two political parties is not.
EDITORIAL COMMENT
Several good and bad things can be taken from the results of the Spanish General Election held on Sunday, once again in the shadow of a terrorist attack, this time with the fatal shooting of an ex-Socialist councillor in Mondragón last Friday. The family of Isaías Carrasco called for people to vote, and vote they did, although interestingly in Mondragón itself turnout was lower than nationally.
Spain can take heart that the turnout was even higher than four years ago, at a very healthy 75%. That comes as little surprise following the massive television audiences for the two debates held between the main party leaders during the campaign.
The debates, although far too restricted in their format and design, were the first to be held on TV for 15 years, and that is another good thing.
The Socialists can take heart from their progress in both the Basque region and Cataluña. The former is particularly significant following the placing of the fight against ETA at the centre of the campaign by the opposition Partido Popular. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s failed attempt at talks and a cease fire has been supported by the people of the Basque region at the polls.
The Partido Popular has advanced to the degree that many consider that Mariano Rajoy remains safe as party leader, at least until the next party conference, despite the fact that it is his second consecutive election defeat. Whether the P.P. sees the increase in support as proof that their aggressive form of opposition has worked, or the election defeat as proof that such aggression has failed, still remains to be seen. The PP have been predicting catastrophes over the past four years, including the so-called break-up of Spain with more power moved to the regions, and last night’s result will, I fear, do little to change that.
The role of the Mayor of Madrid, Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón, will be key now to the future of Mariano Rajoy. Once again the PP did extremely well in the capital. The row over Gallardón’s non-inclusion as a candidate for Congress has done the party no harm in the ballot boxes of Madrid. Where the Mayor goes with his frustrated ambition will be of great interest in the next few weeks.
Zapatero has promised to steer the country with a ‘strong, but open hand’. It would be good to think that cross-party agreement on the fight against terrorism can now be possible. The Partido Popular failed to accept their last defeat at the ballot box was fair, given the Madrid Train Bombings, but this time round the defeat will feel more real, despite the party’s progress.
With the PSOE up five seats and the PP up six, it is the smaller parties which have suffered. Catalan party Esquerra and left wingers Izquierda Unida are the big losers, and Gaspar Llamazares, the already outgoing leader of IU, was correct in his assessment that he, and the other smaller parties, had become victim of the two-party tsumani, as he described it. And that, unfortunately is bad for Spain.
If the political polarisation continues as it did over the past four years with the two main parties always at odds, that will be even worse for the country.
All the indications are that the Socialists will have to act firmly in the face of the worldwide economic slowdown, and that will be the greatest challenge to Zapatero and his team from today onwards.
But when all is said and done the Socialists have won, and that means that the people of Spain have chosen the open hand of Zapatero, against the closed fist and aggression of Rajoy.
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Editorial/Opinion
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